An unfortunate truth we all have to face...

There's an unfortunate truth we all have to face as business owners:

You can never predict success
with full certainty.

To prove to you why, I’m gonna have to take you back to high-school IT class for only a moment (trust me, it's not as boring as it sounds).

Machines.

Machines work in the following way:

Input → calculation → output

Most business owners operate under the presumption that the market is a machine;

Completely predictable and algorithmic.

The problem is…

It's not.

The market is actually an organism.

There are an infinite number of variables and parameters in the “equation” of the market that make it statistically impossible to predict an event with 100% certainty.

Literally anything could happen.

A moody billionaire deciding your posts should be invisible to any users of his platform… An EU politician deciding that the word “guaranteed” is now manipulative and shall not be used in advertising anymore… A rogue coconut savagely smashing down a potential customer – leaving him unable to buy from you… 

The world is a chaotic place.

And this is where we face a frustrating dilemma:

If the success of your business is (oftentimes) completely random (due to the unpredictable nature of the market), how do we ensure success anyway?

Sharp question my canny friend.

Here's the solution:

The Scientific Method

The scientific method means posing a hypothesis and testing it through experiments, analysis, and then adjusting/discarding the hypothesis based on the results.

Okay…

This sounds kind of boring.

So let me put it into clear, intelligible English for you:

Building a business is NOT a one-and-done deal… it's a process of continuous testing and iteration.

By posing, testing, and discarding hypotheses… you will gradually move closer toward optimal results.

This means the following:

You can follow all the “proven frameworks” you want but in the end… the market is an unpredictable organism which means nothing guaranteed to work.

The only way to achieve success with certainty?

Run an experiment and adjust your course of action based on the feedback. Over and over again until your results are satisfactory.

I want you to adopt this way of thinking in your business from now on.

You’re a scientist.

You’re creating and testing hypotheses, validating or discarding them, and making the necessary adjustments.

Anyways, I’m pressed for time today so I’ll leave you with that.

Think like a scientist.

Talk soon,

Tim <3

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